＜Research＞JPM Expects CN Developers Defaults to Enter Final Stage Soon, Big 4 CN Banks to Continue to Outperform

　　Assuming market confidence in state-owned real estate enterprises remains intact, Chinese developers' defaults should soon come to the final stage, although there may still be some defaults by private real estate companies, JPMorgan issued a research report saying.

　　The YTD default rate is 10.8%, and JPMorgan forecasted that the full-year default rate will climb to 15.4%.

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　　On equity, JPMorgan's industry top picks are CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) -0.450 (-1.639%) Short selling $56.88M; Ratio 29.061% , CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) -0.160 (-1.176%) Short selling $29.77M; Ratio 14.414% and POLY PPT SER (06049.HK) -1.250 (-4.167%) Short selling $241.80K; Ratio 0.944% . On credit, high-yield Chinese real estate bonds achieved double-digit returns in 1H24. LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK) -0.280 (-2.513%) Short selling $17.46M; Ratio 25.096% , YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK) -0.090 (-1.731%) Short selling $6.70M; Ratio 19.030% and GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK) -0.220 (-3.509%) Short selling $1.96M; Ratio 4.941% are top picks for Chinese developers' credit.

　　JPMorgan believed that the impact on banks' asset quality is manageable, and the big 4 Chinese banks are likely to continue to outperform the market, with CCB (00939.HK) +0.030 (+0.560%) Short selling $812.90M; Ratio 23.490% as its top pick.

　　(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-07-05 16:25.)

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